## Discussion: Probability in Real Life

For this week’s Discussion, you will practice your understanding of probability in everyday decision-making by finding an example on the Internet, and you will apply three key features of statistical probability to the example.

To prepare: Search the Internet and review several examples of probability demonstrations.

You may use any simple example of probability that you find (e.g., picking M&Ms or cookies from a jar, spinning a spinner with different colored pieces, the weather). Consider searching the Internet with the phrases “how to teach probability,” or “probability examples,” or “probability demonstrations.” The example you choose can be as elementary as you want as long as it allows you to answer the discussion prompts completely.

##### By Day 3

Post the following:

1. A link to the probability example you chose to review for this discussion.
2. An explanation of how your example demonstrates three of the following concepts related to statistical probability.
• Relative Frequency
• Likelihood of error
• “Over the long run”
• Random sampling
• Representative sample
• Random or chance events
• Confidence that an event will occur the next time
• Gambler’s fallacy
• Probability distribution
3. An explanation of how this example strengthened your understanding of statistical probability.

Be sure to fully explain each of the terms you chose and support your ideas with evidence from the text and Learning Resources.

Provide a reference list for your sources formatted in APA style.

##### By Day 5

Respond to a colleague who posted about a different example from the one you chose to discuss. Respond in one or more of the ways listed below:

• Explain how the example your colleague chose could be used to demonstrate one additional feature of statistical probability not discussed in their initial post.
• A description of how the example your colleague chose strengthened your understanding of statistical probability.
• Ask a probing question about your colleague’s chosen probability demonstration or example and provide the foundation or rationale for the question.

Support your reply with at least one reference (textbook or other scholarly, empirical resources). You may state your opinion and/or provide personal examples; however, you must also back up your assertions with evidence (including in-text citations) from the source and provide a reference.